Energy transition governance in an emerging economy: opportunities and threats on the road to a sustainable future in Kazakhstan

Abstract Kazakhstan has set a lofty goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% before 2030 to combat climate change. Kazakhstan is a middle-income country with a highly centralized government, dependent on extractive industries for 21.3% of its GDP. Kazakhstan has positioned itself as a ‘strong state’ that promotes sustainable development in its pursuit of international investment. Utilizing a centralized approach to energy policy, Kazakhstan is seeking to become a center for the manufacturing of renewable energy equipment and a key player in the global energy transition. Yet, this seems to be at odds with their goals of creating a sustainable environmental future in local communities. To better understand the energy transition policies pursued, this article examines the energy sector through a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis. Drawing on expert stakeholder interviews, this study examines the SWOT to Kazakhstan’s energy transition from the perspective of stakeholder groups. Based on the findings from the interviews, this article suggests policies that Kazakhstan can adopt from other emerging economies to balance socio-economic needs with sustainability goals to achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality target. The findings provide practical insights for policymakers, local government officials, and development practitioners seeking to align national energy goals with the needs of local stakeholders. Additionally, the study contributes to academic debates on decentralized governance and energy transition by providing a nuanced, stakeholder-informed assessment relevant to researchers in environmental policy and sustainability studies.