Projection in journalists’ perceptions of public opinion

Journalists’ perceptions of public opinion influence their reporting. Yet, the factors driving these public opinion perceptions are not well understood. This study examines one such potential factor, namely the impact of journalists’ own policy opinions on their estimations of public opinion. Concretely, we identify which journalists are more susceptible to such so-called social projection . Moreover, we investigate which factors moderate the relationship between own opinion and perceived public opinion. Drawing on unique survey data from political journalists in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, we demonstrate that journalists’ own policy opinions are indeed correlated with their public opinion estimations. Moreover, we find that journalists whose political opinions tend to the right are more likely to perceive public opinion in line with their own opinion. Finally, our findings indicate that journalists project less when estimating public opinion on policies within their news beats, and they project less when they perceive public opinion on a policy issue as ambiguous. We discuss the implications of our findings for journalism as a profession.