The Ripple Effect: How the Russo–Ukrainian War Shaped Public Perception of Presidential Performance in Taiwan

This study investigates the impact of the 2022 Russo–Ukrainian War on public evaluations of presidential performance in Taiwan. It argues that an international crisis, when perceived as a plausible threat to individuals’ immediate environment and linked to past events with tangible physical or financial consequences, can trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect, leading to increased public support for the incumbent president. Utilising a quasi-experimental design, this study analyses data from three waves of Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Survey conducted in December 2021, March 2022 and June 2022. The findings provide empirical support for the rally effect but reveal important nuances. As media coverage and public salience of the international crisis declined, approval ratings for the president returned to pre-crisis levels, underscoring the temporary nature of such effects and the importance of effective crisis management. These findings have significant policy implications and contribute to the broader literature on the interplay between international events and public opinion.