Multi-scenario simulation of land use spatial conflicts: A spatially explicit model integrating conflict risk and ecological impact

Land use spatial conflicts (LUSC) represent a critical constraint on sustainable land utilization, with the identification of its spatiotemporal evolution patterns being essential for optimizing territorial spatial configurations. However, existing research often overlooks the ecological impacts of LUSC and provides limited predictive insights into future conflict dynamics. Addressing these gaps, this study develops a spatially explicit model for LUSC evaluation and simulation from an ecological perspective. This model was employed to evaluate LUSC evolution from 2000 to 2020 and to project conflict patterns for 2030 under Natural Development (ND), Ecological Protection (EP), and Economic Development (ED) scenarios in Gaoligong Mountain Region (GMR). The findings demonstrated that: (1) The LUSC in GMR exhibits a distinct “high in the south, low in the north” spatial pattern. Between 2010–2020, LUSC demonstrated a “scale reduction-spatial concentration” trend compared to 2000–2010. (2) The EP scenario minimizes the size of the LUSC and the extent of the zone of intense and severe conflict is also significantly reduced compared to the historical period. (3) Simulation results indicate that over 90% of conflict-prone areas across all three scenarios are concentrated in Longyang District, Ruili City, and Mang City. (4) The encroachment of cultivated land and built-up land into other types of land is the main cause of conflicts. Based on these findings, we propose a differentiated governance strategy featuring “zonal management in the south and green development in the north,” providing critical insights for optimizing the spatial allocation of land and informing sustainable land policy development.