Beyond Hedging? Japanese and South Korean Responses to US–China Competition

Hedging, conceptualized as a set of improvised alignment practices, allows states to maintain maneuverability in the face of uncertainty. Using this conceptual framework, we re-examine the evolving foreign policy perceptions and strategies of Japan and South Korea in response to the growing US–China competition in the last decade. While Japan has consistently aligned with the US since 2013, when Xi Jinping took power in China, South Korea has undergone a more notable shift—from hedging to balancing against China. Surprisingly, the changes in perceptions of Chinese threat can be traced to the progressive administration of President Moon Jae-in. This analysis highlights the dynamic nature of alignment strategies and their implications for regional security and the US–China rivalry.