Unveiling the mechanisms and implications: how artificial intelligence drives green growth in China’s Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt under the carbon neutrality agenda

Amidst the backdrop of global climate warming and China’s proactive chase of its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, the Huaihe River Basin (HRB), a region of significant strategic importance in the heartland and eastern expanse of the nation is confronted with formidable challenges, including high energy consumption and severe environmental pollution. Despite its substantial contributions to economic development, the traditional development model of the HRB conflicts with the principles of green development, necessitating the urgent exploration of innovative pathways to sustainable progress. Through a comprehensive review of scholarly literature and rigorous theoretical analysis, this study demonstrates that artificial intelligence (AI) can significantly drive green development by enhancing eco-innovation and optimizing industrial structures. Using a panel dataset from 27 cities in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HEB) from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a bidirectional fixed-effects model to analyze the repercussions of AI on green development. The baseline regression results show that for every one-unit increase in AI development level (AIDL), HEB’s urban green development level significantly increases by 0.087. This positive influence is further confirmed through robustness tests. We found that AI can indirectly influence the mechanism and pathway of green development through intermediate variables. AI drives green development indirectly through two pathways: green technology innovation and the rationalization of the industrial structure, with a total explanatory power of 56.7% (R2 = 0.812). Based on these findings, we propose vigorously promoting the green effects of AI, refining industrial structures, and leveraging mediating effects to foster sustainable regional development. These insights offer novel perspectives for the green development of the HRB but also provide valuable references for the green transformation of other areas with similar challenges.