A Case Study of Systemic Risk Assessment for the Operational Safety of a Long-Distance Water Delivery Tunnel

In the operation period of long-distance water delivery tunnels, safety may be impacted by the risks that arise from different aspects including the complex geological conditions with fault fracture zones and karst caves, the diverse environment affecting structural safety and stability, and the construction defects of tunnels. It is crucial to assess and mitigate potential risks to ensure operation safety. To address this challenge, this study presents a systemic risk assessment for the operation safety of a real project of a water delivery tunnel. The potential risks of this project were first summarized based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and a model that integrates the AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) was built to effectively quantify and categorize risks for the project in its operation stage. Results of the assessment indicate that the risk of this tunnel operation can be classified at a moderate grade with a calculted specific risk score of 43.935, with the high-risk factors including segment lining cracking, flow control, and regular maintenance. In response to the high-risk factors, the preventative and control measures are proposed to guide effective risk management. The model presented offers an efficient risk assessment tool for water delivery tunnels, aiding decision makers making more rational management decisions in complex and uncertain environments.