Analysis of the impact of RCEP implementation on global trade – a simulation based on the dynamic GTAP

Abstract Subject and purpose of work This paper divides the world into 10 countries or regions based on the member states of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), and categorizes industries into 10 major sectors according to the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). Materials and methods Using the dynamic GTAP model, it analyzes the macroeconomic and micro-industry effects on both regional and non-member countries when import tariffs are reduced to zero among RCEP member states. Results Imulation results indicate that after tariff reductions, member countries experience GDP growth, improved trade conditions, increased social welfare, and significant gains in member country benefits. Conclusions Each industry in member countries is affected to varying degrees, allowing countries to leverage their industrial advantages, enhance value-added products, and shift trade from outside the region to within the region.