Armed Non-State Actor-Perpetrated Civilian Victimization in Armed Conflict: An Opportunity Cost Argument

Civilian abuse and targeting are as old as war itself and are often presumed to be an inevitable consequence of conflict and militant barbarity. Existing studies have most often attributed civilian victimization rates to conflict and non-state actor-specific characteristics. However, these studies often overlook the broader strategic situation that non-state actors find themselves in, inevitably framing abuse as an end itself and not as a means to an end. Using an opportunity cost framework, this study centers civilian victimization within a rational actor framework and analyzes when non-state actors become more or less likely to choose strategies of abuse in line with their own unique opportunity costs. This study finds significant evidence to suggest that opportunity costs imposed by international human rights institutions can reduce the severity of civilian targeting by non-state actors.