Mapping shifts in employment patterns in the Northern Gulf of Mexico due to sea-level rise

This paper investigates the far-reaching effects of climate change on coastal communities, focusing on sea-level rise (SLR) and its impact on housing stability and employment across diverse sectors and geographical areas. We examine the repercussions of varying SLR scenarios on the population and employment associated with various economic sectors in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf), a topic on which there are notable gaps in the literature. Our analysis predicts that 2.3% of current employees will become vulnerable by 2100 to SLR alone, increasing to 4% when coupled with a category 1 hurricane and 18% with a category 5 hurricane, assuming no adaptation measures. If urbanization, employment growth, and housing choices-driven by proximity to workplaces-remain unchanged, these percentages will be 8, 11, and 34% for projected employees. Industries such as construction, health care, and accommodation and food services are particularly at risk due to SLR alone along the Northern Gulf Coast. The threat extends to other sectors like retail trade, transportation, and education across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida, especially under category 5 hurricanes. Many employees in these sectors currently reside near shorelines, suggesting significant workforce relocation will be required. Vulnerability to economic losses will rise among individuals aged 30 to 54, with nearly half of at-risk projected employees belonging to higher earning groups. While these individuals may have resources to manage relocation, remaining elements of the population are socially vulnerable due to limited financial means and alternatives, highlighting the need for targeted support and equitable risk mitigation.