The Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Land Cover Change: Case Study of Kicukiro District, Rwanda

Urbanization refers to the migration of people from rural areas to urban areas, which is characterized by increased infrastructure and population density. Many factors, including population growth, economic development, industrial expansion, rural-to-urban migration, and regulatory changes, cause urbanization. The primary emphasis of this study was the impact of urbanization on changes in agricultural land use in Kicukiro, Rwanda. The factors affecting urbanization in Kicukiro District were explored, together with the effects of urbanization on the district's agricultural land cover change. The study used a descriptive research design and a multifaceted framework to gather and analyze data through a case study approach and an empirical investigation to describe and investigate agricultural land cover change in the context of urbanization in one of Kicukiro District's divisions. The Primary data was collected using survey questionnaires, interview guides, and remote sensing using GIS, and Secondary data was gathered through documentation and remote sensing on a population of 13,5463 households from Kicukiro district and a sample size of 99 households calculated using Yamane Slovin’s formula at a 10% margin of error. The results showed a mean score of 4.13 and a std of 0.62, explaining that they believed that urbanization leads to a rise in major city growth and urban concentration. A mean score of 4.24 and Std of 0.75, meaning that the respondents believed that new agricultural methods are a result of town expansion. The ANOVA test was conducted, and showed an F-critical of 4.210, and an F-statistic of 16.907, greater than the F-statistic, meaning that the model was statistically significant in predicting the influence of independent variables. The linear regression model was fitted to study data and indicated that all independent variables affect the dependent variable at a 62.8% level, which indicated that 37.2% of the change in agricultural land cover in Kicukiro district is due to other factors not included in this study. The study concluded that urbanization is a major factor in Kicukiro's population growth, infrastructural development, economic expansion, and loss of agricultural land and recommended that to address the urbanization issues and rural economy, Kicukiro District shall strike a balance between agricultural preservation and urban growth to satisfy both urban and rural needs while safeguarding the district's potential for farming for future generations.