Research on the Nonlinear Impact of Digital Economy Development on the Dual Control of Carbon Emissions—Based on the Data of 274 Prefecture-Level Cities

在“双碳”目标的战略指导下，研究数字经济发展水平与碳排放双控的影响关系，实现低碳转型具有十分重要的意义。数字经济作为推动“双碳”目标实现，为碳排放提供了新的解决思路和方案。本文所选的数据涵盖了中国274个地级市在2006到2021年的面板数据，从碳排放总量和碳强度两个视角进行研究，系统分析了数字经济对“双碳”目标下碳排放总量与强度双控的结构性影响及其作用机制。研究结果发现：第一，数字经济发展水平对于碳排放双控影响具有非常显著的影响，并且呈现出倒U型的特征，即先推动而后转为抑制的特征。第二，异质性分析检验结果呈现差异化特征：数字经济发展对东、中、西部城市样本而言，均呈现促进碳排放总量和强度双控目标达成的显著的效果，此外，数字经济在不同的发展阶段当中，对于城市的碳减排效应带来的地域差异也是显而易见的。从碳强度的角度看，也呈现出倒U型的非线性关系，碳排放强度也与之相同，地区差异显著。研究发现，数字经济发展与跨区域协同治理的深度耦合，能够显著强化空间联动减排效应。该研究提供了理论支持和实践参考，为区域协同碳减排机制在数字经济驱动下的建设提供了参考。Under the strategic guidance of the “dual carbon” goals, it is of great significance to study the impact relationship between the development level of the digital economy and the dual control of carbon emissions, and to achieve low-carbon transformation. As a driving force for the realization of the “dual carbon” goals, the digital economy provides new solutions and ideas for carbon emissions. The data selected in this paper cover the panel data of 274 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2021. The research is conducted from two perspectives: the total amount of carbon emissions and the carbon intensity, and systematically analyzes the structural impact of the digital economy on the dual control of the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions under the “dual carbon” goals and its mechanism of action. The research findings are as follows: First, the development level of the digital economy has a very significant impact on the dual control of carbon emissions, and it shows an inverted U-shaped characteristic, that is, it first promotes and then turns to suppression. Second, the results of the heterogeneity analysis test show differentiated characteristics: for the samples of cities in the eastern, central, and western regions, the development of the digital economy significantly promotes the achievement of the dual control goals of both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions. In addition, during different development stages of the digital economy, the regional differences in the carbon emission reduction effects on cities are also obvious. From the perspective of carbon intensity, there is also an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship, and the same is true for the intensity of carbon emissions, with significant regional differences. The research finds that the deep coupling of the development of the digital economy and cross-regional collaborative governance can significantly strengthen the spatial linkage emission reduction effect. This study provides theoretical support and practical reference, and offers a reference for the construction of a regional collaborative carbon emission reduction mechanism driven by the digital economy.