Research on the Impact of Carbon Tariff Barriers on China’s Manufacturing Exports

随着欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)的实施，碳关税逐渐成为发达国家平衡气候目标与产业竞争的新兴工具，对中国制造业出口构成多重挑战。本文以“双循环”战略为背景，系统分析碳关税对中国制造业出口的短期、中期与长期影响路径：短期表现为价格攀升与出口量收缩的双重挤压，中期倒逼产业结构被动调整，长期则驱动企业向绿色技术主导的主动转型。研究表明，碳关税的冲击本质是外循环压力与内循环韧性动态博弈的过程，其影响深度依赖于国内低碳竞争力与国际规则话语权的协同提升。基于此，本文提出“双循环复合应对框架”，从政策、技术与市场三维度构建响应体系，包括国内碳定价对冲机制、绿色内需激活策略、区域性低碳标准互认等举措，旨在帮助中国制造业实现从“被动合规”到“主动引领”的转型，稳固全球竞争力并为气候治理贡献中国方案。With the implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), carbon tariffs have gradually become a new tool for developed countries to balance climate goals and industrial competition, posing multiple challenges to China’s manufacturing exports. Against the backdrop of the “Dual Circulation” strategy, this paper systematically analyzes the short-term, medium-term, and long-term impact pathways of carbon tariffs on China’s manufacturing exports. In the short term, it is manifested as the dual squeeze of rising prices and shrinking export volumes. In the medium term, it forces a passive adjustment of the industrial structure. In the long term, it drives enterprises to actively transform towards a green technology-led model. The research shows that the impact of carbon tariffs is essentially a dynamic game process between the pressure of the external circulation and the resilience of the internal circulation, and the depth of its impact depends heavily on the coordinated improvement of domestic low-carbon competitiveness and the right to speak in international rules. Based on this, this paper proposes a “Composite Response Framework for Dual Circulation,” constructing a response system from three dimensions of policy, technology, and market. It includes measures such as the domestic carbon pricing hedging mechanism, the activation strategy for green domestic demand, and the mutual recognition of regional low-carbon standards. The aim is to help China’s manufacturing industry achieve the transformation from “passive compliance” to “active leadership”, consolidate its global competitiveness, and contribute China’s solutions to climate governance.