Disruption to schooling: Evidence from the Mt. Merapi volcano eruption on Java Island, Indonesia

Volcanic eruptions occur frequently in Indonesia, especially on the densely populated island of Java; therefore, policies aimed at strengthening resilience in children’s education are important. We examined the causal impact of the 2010 Mt. Merapi eruption on children’s educational outcomes. Using the difference-in-difference (DiD) method, we found that the volcanic eruption reduced the likelihood of children being enrolled in school, and the negative impact worsened over time. The eruption increased the likelihood of children dropping out of school to work and reduced cognitive ability. The disruption operated through increased incidences of chronic illness, a higher number of children being forced into marriage, and an increased number of school closures in affected areas. Children from poor households were more likely to drop out of school. Enrollment rate, child labor, and early marriage did not differ between boys and girls, but boys experienced a larger cognitive score decline than girls.