Bayesian Estimation of Ammunition Hit Probability in Multiple Batches Tests Based on Multinomial Distribution

The ammunition hit probability tests are usually conducted in multiple batches, and the ammunition hit performance will be improved after the end of a certain batch of tests, and the hit probability of each batch of tests presents dynamic change characteristic. The prior information of the ammunition hit probability will be obtained before each batch of tests. Making full use of this information is the key point of hit probability estimation. In addition, considering the different damage degree caused by ammunition hitting different target areas, the original binomial distribution hit probability test is improved and described by multinomial distribution. The information of each batch is fused by using Bayesian method and system contribution, and the improvement effect of ammunition hit performance is identified by constructing sequence constraint relation. Finally, Bayesian estimation of ammunition hit probability in multiple batches tests based on multinomial distribution is proposed. The example shows that this method can describe the hit performance of ammunition in detail, and scientifically integrate the information of each batch firing tests and simulation tests, providing reference for the estimation of the hit probability of ammunition.