Cointegration and Causality between Modern Logistics Industry and Regional Economic Growth - A Case Study of Sichuan Province

As an important part of the service economy, the modern logistics industry has made significant contributions to promoting economic development. This study focuses on assessing the development of modern logistics in Sichuan Province and its role in improving regional economic performance, identifying the impact of specific industries. The interaction between the modern logistics industry and economic growth is examined using cointegration model analysis. Economic growth in Sichuan Province is clearly influenced by the upgrading of the modern logistics industry, which maintains a long-term stable equilibrium with GDP and logistics indicators such as express and waterway freight volumes. The study shows that economic growth promotes the development of the modern logistics industry, and vice versa. The Granger causality test shows that the adjustment of express and waterway freight volume unilaterally affects GDP growth, indicating that the increase of express volume and the decrease of waterway freight volume promote the long-term GDP growth of Sichuan Province. The article puts forward policy suggestions such as seizing the opportunity of "Belt and Road", introducing new technologies to build a digital logistics system, and accelerating industrial integration to create a logistics industry ecosystem, in order to promote the coordinated upgrading of the modern logistics industry and regional economy in Sichuan Province.