European Union agro-climate policies toward sustainability: Analyzing emission trends and land use dynamics (1990–2021)

The agricultural sector plays a pivotal role in the carbon cycle, making the evaluation of the food–climate nexus essential for effective mitigation policy. This study assesses greenhouse gas (GHG) emission dynamics across the European Union (EU-27) from 1990 to 2021. While 20 of the 27 countries showed significant reductions in emissions (p < 0.05), Mann–Kendall trend analysis revealed an overall significant decline (p < 0.0001), with a Sen’s slope of -2,190 kt CO 2 eq/year. Land use data from CORINE indicated a modest 0.08% expansion in agricultural land, primarily non-irrigated arable land, resulting in a net gain of 2.27 million hectares. Autoregressive distributed lag modelling revealed a short-run reduction (-0.07%) but a long-run increase (+0.15%) in GHG emissions linked to agricultural land expansion. Granger causality analysis identified strong unidirectional relationships from agricultural drivers—including land use, value-added agriculture, crop and livestock production, and fertilizer use—to emissions. Notably, forest area increased by 12%, contributing to significant emission reductions, and showed bidirectional causality with agricultural land. These results exposed a persistent gap between emission trends and policy targets, recommending for countries and sector-specific interventions in agriculture, livestock, and land-use governance. • GHG emissions dropped significantly (p < 0.05) in 20 of 27 EU states since 1990. • A 0.08% rise in agricultural land cover increased GHG emissions. • Agriculture, livestock, and fisheries showed long-run links with GHG emissions. • Net-zero progress in EU-27 was driven by targeted sectoral climate policies. • Strict implementation of the new CAP (2023–27) will support EU-27 carbon goals.