Modelling Peatland Fire Risk and Economic Losses in Indonesia

Indonesian peatlands have a crucial role in mitigating global climate change through acting as carbon sinks and reservoirs. However, because of the frequent and recurrent fires that result in high carbon emissions and substantial financial losses, which can threaten environmental stability, these roles are becoming more and more impaired. This study aims to map the risk of peatland fires across Sumatra and Kalimantan by combining logistic regression and Monte Carlo simulation. Logistic regression is used to estimate the fire probability based on significant factors including water table height, distance to human activities, and vegetation type. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to estimate the potential economic losses caused by these fires. The data are integrated through a gridding approach, which divides the area into grids of 1 km<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup>. Finally, a thorough risk matrix and a spatially explicit fire risk map are produced, providing policymakers important information for allocating resources and prioritizing mitigation actions. According to the analysis, there are geographical variations in the risk of peatland fires, with the risk being mostly low, low to moderate, and medium to high.