How long do voluntary lockdowns keep people at home? The role of social capital during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Using data from over 80 million mobile devices, we create a city-by-day-level mobility index for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic to analyze how voluntary prevention and policy compliance varies with social capital levels. We find that in the second year of the pandemic, both voluntary preventative activities and policy compliance were substantially reduced in areas with low levels of social capital but not in areas with high levels of social capital. Additionally, the impact of social capital is heterogeneous, and norms and culture may play a minor role in more developed and urbanized areas. Additionally, in Japan, the observed heterogeneity in behavior regarding supporting political parties was not based on ideology, position, or ruling status but rather on whether a party was a majority or minority. These results suggest that valuing conformity with others is an essential driver of behavior that benefits the community.