The triadic impact of hydrogen production, electricity generation, and policies on hydrogen feasibility

The feasibility of renewable hydrogen is highly debated due to conflicting assessments of cost, scalability, and policy effectiveness. This study applies hydrogen trilism – a framework capturing the interdependencies between hydrogen production, electricity generation, energy demand and poverty, and policy interventions. Conventional post-optimisation ranking tools such as TOPSIS, prioritise cost-efficiency, whereas a data-driven multi-objective strategy (DDMOSSS) yields context-sensitive solutions that align with socio-techno-economic goals. A comparative analysis revealed that while DDMOSSS ranks Pareto solutions similarly to TOPSIS under large-scale configurations, DDMOSSS is better suited for small-scale systems where socio-economic trade-offs are more pronounced. The financial analysis revealed that non-islanded large-scale hydrogen systems using imported electricity can achieve competitive hydrogen selling prices of approximately $7/kg. This finding contributes to the debate on islanded versus non-islanded and non-trade islanded configurations, showing that non-islanded solar PV systems outperform islanded and non-trade islanded configurations. A 50 % CAPEX reduction lowers costs from $1.85/kg to $0.92/kg, while a $3/kg production tax credit (PTC) reduces LCOH and NPC by over 113 %. However, PTCs primarily consolidate industry profits rather than benefiting consumers. Furthermore, while Investment Tax Credits provide upfront cost savings, Carbon Credits offer sustained financial benefits by aligning revenue streams with hydrogen consumption. The results also showed that achieving hydrogen market competitiveness requires scaling demand, incorporating policy incentives, and driving technological advancements. For instance, hydrogen must reach around $1/kg to compete with charcoal in Zambia or $5/kg to compete with LNG. These findings evidence the necessity of context-specific deployment strategies over purely cost-driven approaches for sustainable hydrogen adoption. • New method improves decisions for small-medium energy systems with social trade-offs. • Hydrogen from imported power is cheaper than solar-only configurations. • Tax credits cut costs but offer limited socio-economic development gains. • Carbon credits give lasting revenue linked to hydrogen use and emissions. • Hydrogen must cost $1–$5/kg to compete with charcoal or fossil gas in Zambia.