What is the cost and potential of low carbon electricity transition in the MENA region?

Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power, is a validated approach for mitigating carbon emissions. To maximize renewable energy potential and account for costs and impacts of low carbon energy transitions, research models or modelling tools must provide an accurate representation of the technological and economic capabilities of renewable energy technologies. Hence, this study assesses the electricity generation potential, and costs associated with onshore and offshore wind power, and solar photovoltaic (PV) system, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on wind and solar atlas datasets. Unlike existing works in literature, the assessment of offshore wind energy potential and the calculation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in this study incorporates factors like water depth, distance from shore, and wind speed. Also, the potential of onshore wind energy and solar photovoltaic systems is evaluated by considering variables such as population density, availability of suitable land area, and geographical location, for every grid cell in the MENA region. We found that the average LCOE can be as low as US$40/MWh for solar PV and US$45/MWh for wind power, achieved in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait respectively. This work contributes to existing literature by providing reliable LCOE, capacity factor, and productivity data for solar and wind energy potential estimation in the MENA region. • Assessment of solar PV and wind power potential and capacity factor in the MENA region. • The use of renewables.ninja to map the Levelised cost of electricity. • We found that the LCOE of solar and wind power can be as low as US$40/MWh and US$50/MWh.