Lithium at the crossroads: geopolitical, economic, and socio-environmental complexities of the Jadar project in Serbia

Abstract This paper examines the security-cost-sustainability trilemma associated with undeveloped critical mineral deposits, focusing on the geopolitical dynamics, economic implications, and governance challenges surrounding Rio Tinto’s Jadar lithium-borates project in Serbia. It explores the intersection of activism, national politics, and international relations, particularly in the context of Serbia's strategic positioning between the West and China/Russia, and how these alignments influence the project’s trajectory. The paper evaluates the significance of the Jadar deposit in ensuring the European Union’s critical minerals security, while also highlighting socio-environmental concerns and disinformation campaigns that have intensified public opposition to the project’s trajectory. Applying the conceptual minerals trilemma framework, the study demonstrates the complexities of bringing sufficient volumes of critical minerals to market, in amid resistance to extraction, national governance constraints, and increasingly fragmented and contested geopolitical landscape.