The Involvement of Human Factors Brings New Findings for Predicting Global Suitability Habitat for <i>Hyphantria cunea</i> (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae)

Invasive pests have spread globally at an unprecedented scale, severely threatening biodiversity and resulting in significant economic losses, emerging as a global problem. This study utilizes the Maxent model, incorporating human and natural factors to predict the current and future potential global distribution of <i>Hyphantria cunea</i>, for comparison with climate change. Results indicate that under the influence of climate change, human factors have significantly altered the potential global distribution of <i>H. cunea</i>. In contrast to the potential distribution driven by climate change, this paper suggests that the suitable habitat area for <i>H. cunea</i> in Oceania, Southern Hemisphere, is expected to increase. Over the long term, under the SSP126 and 585 scenarios, there is a forecasted reduction of 25.2% and 33.2% in the suitable living area for <i>H. cunea</i>, whereas the SSP245 and 370 scenarios anticipate increases of 13.9% and 5.7%, respectively. Moreover, this research identifies areas of high suitability across continents and forecasts changes in the distribution patterns of <i>H. cunea</i> in the future. It offers crucial insights for developing more effective global quarantine strategies and pest management policies.