Uncertainty Propagation of Optimal Hybrid-Electric Aircraft Designs in Scenario-Based Framework

Hybrid-electric propulsion offers a promising pathway to address the aviation sector’s ambitious climate impact reduction goals. While sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are considered the most viable short-term solution, combining alternative fuels with electric propulsion presents opportunities for further advancements. This work proposes a general aircraft design framework that integrates hybrid-electric propulsion and SAF usage while accounting for the entire energy life cycle, including well-to-tank (WTT) processes. By incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ), the framework evaluates how uncertainties in WTT processes impact both climate performance and energy requirements, providing insights into optimal aircraft design decisions. The methodology integrates uncertainty propagation with optimization to assess how variations in energy pathways influence hybrid-electric aircraft design. Applied to a hybrid SAF/electric regional aircraft, the framework identifies the optimal hybridization strategy to minimize climate impact and energy consumption. Results reveal that battery technology significantly affects the probability distributions of key design observables. Additionally, within a specified range of battery specific energy, the optimal power management strategy varies depending on whether the objective is climate impact reduction or energy efficiency.