PEAK PREDICTION OF NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN CHINA UNDER MULTI SCENARIO SIMULATION

As a crucial energy source during the green and low-carbon transition period of the energy sector, understanding the evolution patterns of natural gas consumption is of paramount importance for constructing a modern energy system, safeguarding China's energy security, and achieving the "dual carbon" goals. This paper identifies population, affluence, technological advancement, industrial structure, and energy consumption structure as the primary factors influencing China's natural gas consumption. It employs the VIF test to examine multicollinearity among these factors and introduces the Ridge Regression method to mitigate the risks posed by multicollinearity. By solving the undetermined coefficients of the extended Stochastic Impacts by STIRPAT model, it overcomes the potential forecasting risks inherent in the model. The ADF test is utilized to assess the stationarity of variables, ensuring the reliability of the forecasting results from the extended STIRPAT model. Based on scenario analysis, this study explores the trends in China's natural gas consumption. The findings are as follows:(1) The extended STIRPAT model, constructed on the basis of factors such as population, affluence, technological advancement, industrial structure, and energy consumption structure, demonstrates high prediction accuracy and serves as an effective forecasting tool for analyzing the evolution trends of natural gas consumption.(2) Optimizing China's population growth rate, facilitating high-quality economic development, promoting the green and low-carbon development process, and driving high-quality development of the industrial structure are conducive to accelerating the peak of natural gas consumption in China and reducing its overall consumption volume.(3) By accelerating the comprehensive adoption of a green and low-carbon development model, China's natural gas consumption is projected to reach its peak around 2035, with a peak range of approximately 4620×10 8 m 3 ~5160×10 8 m 3 , an average annual growth rate dropping to below 0.3%, and a foreign dependency ratio ranging from 39% to 45%.(4) By expediting the implementation of pro-natality policies, appropriately regulating industrial development, and optimizing the energy mix, China's natural gas consumption is expected to plateau during the 2040-2045 period, with a peak consumption level between 6500×10 8 m 3 ~7500×10 8 m 3 , an average annual growth rate of natural gas consumption slowing down to 2.2%-2.9%, and a foreign dependency ratio reaching 55%. By 2050, China's natural gas consumption is anticipated to stabilize at around 6000×10 8 m 3 .