Effect of Pre-Trip Information in a Traffic Network with Stochastic Travel Conditions: Role of Risk Attitude

Empirical studies have suggested that travelers’ risk attitudes affect their choice behavior when travel conditions are stochastic. By considering the travelers’ risk attitudes, we extend the classical two-route model, in which road capacities vary due to such shocks as bad weather, accidents, and special events. Two information regimes have been investigated. In the zero-information regime, we postulate that travelers acquire the variability in route travel time based on past experiences and choose the route to minimize the travel time budget. In the full-information regime, travelers have pre-trip information of the road capacities and thus choose the route to minimize the travel time. User equilibrium states of the two regimes have been analyzed, based on the canonical BPR travel time function with power coefficient p. In the special case p=1, the closed form solutions have been derived. Three cases and eleven subcases have been classified concerning the dependence of expected total travel times on the risk attitude in the zero-information regime. In the general condition p>0, although we are not able to derive the closed form solutions, we proved that the results are qualitatively unchanged. We have studied the benefit gains/losses by shifting from the zero-information to the full-information regime. The circumstance under which pre-trip information is beneficial has been identified. A numerical analysis is conducted to further illustrate the theoretical findings.