Analysis of Carbon Emission Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Cement Industry in Hebei Province

As a crucial provider of building materials, the cement industry occupies a central position in developing Hebei Province’s construction sector while presenting considerable challenges to achieving regional carbon neutrality targets. This paper establishes a carbon emission accounting model for cement production, quantifies the carbon emission trajectory of Hebei’s cement industry from 2005 to 2023, applies the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions, and predicts future emissions from 2024 to 2035 using scenario analysis methods. The results indicate that the overall carbon emissions from the cement industry in Hebei Province exhibited fluctuating trends between 2005 and 2023, primarily driven by carbonate decomposition and fossil fuel combustion during the clinker calcination stage. Population size, GDP per capita, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, cement consumption structure, and cement production were identified as positive contributors to carbon emissions. In contrast, energy intensity was found to have a mitigating effect. The prediction results show that the industry reached its carbon emissions peak at 70.29 million tCO2e in 2020. Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, emissions are expected to decline by 20.9% relative to the baseline scenario, reaching 34.95 million tCO2e by 2035. Deep emission reductions should be achieved through technological upgrading and policy guidance to support the low-carbon transformation of Hebei’s cement industry and promote sustainable urbanization.