Predicting Range Shifts of Five Alnus (Betulaceae) Species in China Under Future Climate Scenarios

Climate change poses significant challenges to forest biodiversity by altering species distributions. This study employed the MaxEnt model to predict the current and potential future suitable habitats of five <i>Alnus</i> species in China under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Model accuracy was high, with temperature seasonality identified as the most influential variable. In addition, predicted range shifts showed species-specific patterns, with most species expanding toward higher latitudes and elevations. In contrast, <i>Alnus ferdinandi-coburgii</i> exhibited consistent habitat contraction. These findings enhance understanding of the climatic responses of <i>Alnus</i> species and provide a scientific basis for targeted conservation and management strategies under future climate change, and may offer insights into habitat responses of <i>Alnus</i> species in other temperate regions.