Prediksi Bahan Baku Kerupuk Rambak UMKM Tiga Berlian dengan Single Moving Average

The "Tiga Berlian" rambak cracker MSME is an MSME in the snack food sector located in Banyuwangi Bandongan Village which produces crackers made from cowhide. Rambak crackers are a superior product with total demand per month reaching 150 kg. Tiga Berlian UMKM has difficulty in predicting and calculating raw material supplies for the coming period so excess raw material stock often occurs, such as cowhide or buffalo as the main raw material that is wasted due to uncertain demand. Single Moving Average (SMA) is used as a prediction method for raw materials in Tiga Berlian. Calculations with several periods (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11) will be tested for accuracy using MAD, MSE and MAPE. The 11 predictions made with Tiga Berlian raw material data for 12 months, the 11th-period calculation resulted in a MAD value of 2.56198, a MAPE value of 2.561983, and an MSE value of 72.20135 as the smallest and most relevant accuracy value.