Perceptions of Foreign Leadership and Alignment Trade-offs: The Case of Taiwan

This article examines how Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in foreign leaders influences their preferences for aligning with China or the United States, particularly in national security and economic development. Situated at the centre of escalating US–China rivalry, Taiwan must balance security reliance on the United States with economic interdependence with China. Utilising patron–client theory, we explore how leadership evaluations—specifically, public confidence in President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden—affect Taiwanese alignment preferences. Drawing on both constructivist and realist perspectives, we argue that these evaluations reflect broader identity-based and strategic interests, shaping preferences for alignment. Using data from a 2023 national survey, we find that greater confidence in President Xi corresponds with support for closer ties with China, while greater confidence in President Biden aligns with favouring stronger relations with the United States. These findings highlight the importance of foreign leadership perceptions in shaping public foreign policy attitudes and underscore the role of individual-level evaluations within asymmetric power dynamics. By integrating insights on leadership traits with patron–client relationships, this study contributes to understanding how public sentiment regarding Taiwan’s foreign policy direction is influenced by perceptions of superpower leaders amid growing strategic tensions between the United States and China.