A Financial Data Statistical Risk Dynamic Prediction and Analysis Model Based on Regulatory Reports and Risk Indicator System

With the deepening of the financial market and the rapid development of local financial holding groups, the importance of local financial holding groups in China’s financial system is increasing day by day. In recent years, the government has strengthened the supervision of financial holding groups by issuing relevant policy documents, with a particular focus on preventing and resolving systemic financial risks. However, local financial control groups are facing increasingly complex financial risks in the process of expanding their scale and business, and urgently need to take effective measures to ensure financial stability. This article identifies the financing, investment, and operational risks faced by J Group based on its financial statement data from 2019 to 2022, and explores the causes of these risks. By constructing a financial risk evaluation index system using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and combining the improved Efficiency Coefficient Method and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to evaluate financial and non-financial indicators, this study reveals the main risks of J Group in terms of liquidity, asset management, and customer credit. Based on the analysis results, this article proposes optimization strategies for financial risk prevention and control of local financial control groups, including promoting financial digital transformation, improving internal control and risk management systems, and strengthening financial and accounting supervision functions. The innovation of this article lies in filling the research gap in financial risk prevention and control of local financial control groups, and proposing new ideas for financial risk prevention and control that are in line with the background of digital transformation, providing scientific basis for local financial control groups to formulate accurate financial risk management strategies.