Polluted Nature, Polluted Debate: a Longitudinal Analysis of Disinformation Around the Nitrogen Crisis in The Netherlands

Abstract Since May 2019, the Netherlands has been in the grip of a ‘nitrogen crisis’. Kicked off by a judicial decision, but with decades of environmental harm by the extensive Dutch livestock industry at its heart, the crisis has been characterised by farmer protests, the emergence of new political forces, and, at times, intense societal debate about how to tackle the problem. Many in the agricultural industry and beyond oppose reducing livestock numbers to protect vulnerable ecosystems. The arguments they use to do so recall themes from climate change denial, a well-documented form of science denial. In this paper, we examine the extent to which arguments denying the nature, extent, and harm of nitrate emissions from the livestock industry, as well as solutions to the problem, appear in six national newspapers in the Netherlands from May 2019 to September 2024. We also categorise the type of arguments used and track whether they change over time. We focus on the mainstream media to determine whether the societal debate has been polluted by science denial, previously identified on social media (Hill and Weulen Kranenbarg, Tijdschrift voor Criminologie 66:248–272, 2024). Our findings indicate that arguments in support of science denial are found throughout the five-year period examined, although they are more concentrated in right-wing leaning newspapers. The narratives identified, such as emphasising the farmers as victims, pointing the finger at other industries, and arguing that the environmental harm is exaggerated, do not change across the period, indicating a hardened, as well as polarised, debate.