Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change
Abstract Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.
Authors
- Brian W. Miller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1716-1161)
- Jennifer S. Lewinsohn
- Dawn R. Magness (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0627-3574)
- Tyler J. Hoecker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8680-8809)
- Renée Jane Rondeau (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3015-5552)
- Robin E. Russell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8726-7303)
- Kyra Clark‐Wolf (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4584-0348)
- Shelley D. Crausbay (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3028-801X)
- Amber Runyon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7282-1217)
- Wynne E. Moss (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2813-1710)
- Jennifer L. Wilkening (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8748-4578)
- Amy J. Symstad (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4231-2873)
- Gregor W. Schuurman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9304-7742)
- J. J. Barsugli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3078-6396)
- Imtiaz Rangwala (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4313-9374)
- Helen R. Sofaer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9450-5223)
- Meagan F. Oldfather (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3256-4786)
- Dominique Bachelet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4862-9495)
- Jonathan D. Coop (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3930-340X)
- Orien M. W. Richmond
- Anthony Ciocco
Institutions
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- National Park Service (US)
- Oregon State University (US)
- US Forest Service (US)
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service (US)
- Western Colorado University (US)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Vibrant Data (United States) (US)
- Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center
- Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
- Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
- North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
- University of Montana (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Ecosphere
- Published
- 2025-05-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70278
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.32
Funders
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- U.S. Geological Survey