Impact of Insecurity on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1990-2023

This study examines the impact of insecurity on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. Insecurity, including terrorism, kidnapping, and ethno-religious conflicts, has significantly hindered Nigeria’s economic progress. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between economic growth, measured by real GDP, and key variables like insecurity (National Terrorism Index), unemployment, poverty, and inflation. The findings reveal a strong negative correlation between insecurity and economic growth. Increased insecurity leads to reduced investment, decreased productivity, and increased economic uncertainty, ultimately hindering economic development. Additionally, the study highlights the detrimental effects of unemployment, poverty, and inflation on economic growth. To mitigate the negative impacts of insecurity and foster sustainable economic growth, the study recommends comprehensive security measures, effective governance, and targeted policies to address poverty, unemployment, and inequality. By addressing these challenges, Nigeria can create a more secure and prosperous future.