Added Value of Subdaily Precipitation and Its Extremes During a 15‐Year Convection‐Permitting Simulation Over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract In this study, we conduct a 15‐year long (2008–2022) convection‐permitting simulation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate its added value compared to ERA5 in characterizing subdaily precipitation and its extremes over the TP. Our findings indicate that the overestimation of precipitation amounts caused by overestimated precipitation frequency in ERA5 is mitigated in WRF mainly through a reduction in light precipitation occurrences. This improvement is likely linked to increased temperatures and decreased relative humidity in the lower troposphere. Moreover, the much earlier precipitation peak in ERA5 is corrected in WRF, a result attributed to differences in related net water vapor transport onto the TP. Additionally, WRF provides a more accurate estimation of the percentage of short‐ and long‐duration precipitation events with only slight underestimations and overestimations, respectively, whereas ERA5 exhibits significantly larger errors. The relatively larger temperature changes in WRF, indicating increased solar heating, are likely responsible for the higher occurrence of short‐duration precipitation events. In contrast, the anticyclonic anomalies and northeastern wind anomalies in WRF reduce the persistence of long‐duration precipitation. Importantly, WRF also produces more realistic timings of precipitation with different durations compared to ERA5. For extreme precipitation, short‐duration extreme events dominate accounting for 50% of extreme precipitation. These events are better reproduced by WRF than by ERA5. Although WRF outperforms ERA5 in estimating the proportion and contribution of extreme events to total precipitation and in capturing their triggering timing, a slight underestimation persists in the simulated proportion and contribution.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Published
2025-05-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043452
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Type
article
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article

Added Value of Subdaily Precipitation and Its Extremes During a 15‐Year Convection‐Permitting Simulation Over the Tibetan Plateau

Jianping Tang, Tinghai Ou, Mengnan Ma, Richard J. Keane et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

Added Value of Subdaily Precipitation and Its Extremes During a 15‐Year Convection‐Permitting Simulation Over the Tibetan Plateau

Jianping Tang, Tinghai Ou, Mengnan Ma, Richard J. Keane, Deliang Chen
article en

Abstract

Abstract In this study, we conduct a 15‐year long (2008–2022) convection‐permitting simulation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate its added value compared to ERA5 in characterizing subdaily precipitation and its extremes over the TP. Our findings indicate that the overestimation of precipitation amounts caused by overestimated precipitation frequency in ERA5 is mitigated in WRF mainly through a reduction in light precipitation occurrences. This improvement is likely linked to increased temperatures and decreased relative humidity in the lower troposphere. Moreover, the much earlier precipitation peak in ERA5 is corrected in WRF, a result attributed to differences in related net water vapor transport onto the TP. Additionally, WRF provides a more accurate estimation of the percentage of short‐ and long‐duration precipitation events with only slight underestimations and overestimations, respectively, whereas ERA5 exhibits significantly larger errors. The relatively larger temperature changes in WRF, indicating increased solar heating, are likely responsible for the higher occurrence of short‐duration precipitation events. In contrast, the anticyclonic anomalies and northeastern wind anomalies in WRF reduce the persistence of long‐duration precipitation. Importantly, WRF also produces more realistic timings of precipitation with different durations compared to ERA5. For extreme precipitation, short‐duration extreme events dominate accounting for 50% of extreme precipitation. These events are better reproduced by WRF than by ERA5. Although WRF outperforms ERA5 in estimating the proportion and contribution of extreme events to total precipitation and in capturing their triggering timing, a slight underestimation persists in the simulated proportion and contribution.

Journal of Geophysical Research AtmospheresVol. 130(10)
Met Office (GB), University of Leeds (GB), University of Gothenburg (SE), Nanjing University (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 84%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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