Assessment of vulnerability and resilience of smallholder farming households to flood risks: Insights from the Southern Punjab region of Pakistan

The frequency and severity of flood hazards in Pakistan have remarkedly increased in recent decades, posing significant socio-economic and environmental challenges to affected areas, particularly among smallholder farming communities. The present study employs an updated vulnerability assessment framework based on the IPCC AR6 (sixth assessment report, 2023) guidelines, distinguishing exposure from vulnerability. It also develops and operationalizes multidimensional resilience indices to assess the resilience of 269 smallholder farming households across three flood-affected districts in Southern Punjab, Pakistan. This study advances beyond previous research by utilizing latent class analysis (LCA) approach to cluster surveyed households based on their resilience index scores and examine the impact of selected sociodemographic characteristics on their cluster membership. The results reveal high vulnerability and notable geographical disparities in flood vulnerability across the three districts. The findings show that resilience index scores are generally low and more or less homogenous across the studied districts, with some variations pertaining to specific components. Based on LCA analysis, the findings reveal that nearly half of the surveyed households exhibit low resilience, while the remaining households are classified as moderately or highly resilient. Regarding the role of demographic and socio-economic characteristics in shaping the resilience of farming households, income, education, and age stand out as primary determinants of resilience. The study highlights the need for effective interventions and an integrated approach to flood risk management that considers different components of vulnerability and resilience while being responsive to farming households' evolving needs and preparedness in face of intensifying climate change impacts.