A methodological procedure for the energy transition in the land transport sector by quantifying renewable energy needs

A significant increase in the electricity demand from the transport sector is expected in the coming years given the decarbonisation targets set by most countries. With a view to guaranteeing a sustainable transition, in this study a novel methodology with a cross-sectoral (transport and renewable energies) coordination is proposed to determine the renewable power required to meet the needs of the transport sector. Two scenarios are defined: a Trend Scenario and an Implemented Policy Scenario in which the regional targets in these areas must be achieved. The Implemented Policy Scenario entails a modal shift from private vehicle to other transport modes, such as collective or active. The methodology is applied to Tenerife Island (Canary Archipelago, Spain) where the Spanish government target of 28 % electrification of land transport is assumed. On the basis of a 2030 time horizon, the variation in the total number of vehicles ranges from a 19 % increase (Trend Scenario) to a 0.5 % reduction (Implemented Policy Scenario). The Trend Scenario results in a 2.5 % increase in the electricity demand compared to 2020, while the Implemented Policy Scenario would require a 19 % increase. This would mean an additional installed renewable capacity in Tenerife of 41 MW and 322 MW, respectively. Reaching the goals in this region would entail a reduction of around 430 kton CO 2-eq . The proposed methodology enables identification of key socioeconomic parameters, including vehicle purchase acquisition, vehicle annual operational costs, gross domestic product and population, as well as their impact on the land transport transition. • Forecast of land transport in 2030 based on two scenarios. • Urban and interurban key indicators for land transport forecast in 2030. • Estimation of the effect of modal shift in urban and interurban areas. • Estimation of the increase in the electricity demand due to the land transport. • Renewable energies needed to cover this demand increase.