Exploring Pathways for Sustaining Stable Transboundary Cooperation for the Lancang-Mekong River Basin under Changing Hydrological Conditions

Transboundary river cooperation is crucial to maintaining regional security and achieving sustainable development. However, the stability of cooperation is challenged by changing hydrological conditions, hindering enormous benefits sharing from basinwide cooperation. This paper focuses on the pathway of stable cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB). The Nash equilibrium concept is introduced to illustrate the premise of the cooperation. Considering the various hydrological conditions, we show that proactive negotiation in electricity trade provides a viable pathway for stable cooperation in the transboundary basin and propose a normalized dual water-electricity cooperation (NDWEC) framework using the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as a case. The impacts of hydrological uncertainties on the cooperation and the corresponding electricity trade negotiation space are investigated within the NDWEC framework, which implies thresholds of acceptability, consisting of the bottom line (the starting point of negotiation) and the ceiling (the expectations of the negotiation). The results show that Thailand and Vietnam are active advocators with considerable benefits in basinwide cooperation. In contrast, Laos and Cambodia face limited negotiation space. This suggests the need for additional incentives such as financial channels. Moreover, stress tests under future climate models indicate a warning of approximately 3%–6% failure risk in negotiations. This work provides valuable insights into the decision-making processes of riparian countries in today’s changing world.