Universal coding, intrinsic volumes, and metric complexity

We study sequential probability assignment in the Gaussian setting, where the goal is to predict, or equivalently compress, a sequence of real-valued observations almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean constrained to a given subset of \mathbb{R}^{n} . First, in the case of a convex constraint set K , we express the hardness of the prediction problem (the minimax regret) in terms of the intrinsic volumes of K ; specifically, it equals the logarithm of the Wills functional from convex geometry. We then establish a comparison inequality for the Wills functional in the general nonconvex case, which underlines the metric nature of this quantity and generalizes the Slepian–Sudakov–Fernique comparison principle for the Gaussian width. Motivated by this inequality, we characterize the exact order of magnitude of the considered functional for a general nonconvex set, in terms of global covering numbers and local Gaussian widths. This implies sharp estimates, of metric nature, on the log-Laplace transform of the intrinsic volume sequence of a convex body. As part of our analysis, we also characterize the minimax redundancy for a general constraint set. We finally relate and contrast our findings with classical asymptotic results in information theory.