STRUCTURAL MODEL OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: INTERACTIONS BETWEEN GDP AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the economic development of Ukraine from 2001 to 2021, utilizing a structural simultaneous model to examine the interactions between key economic variables. The study focuses on three resulting variables: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the volume of industrial products sold, and the volume of industrial products produced. These are modeled as dependent on four factor variables: exports of goods, imports of goods, average monthly salary, and capital investments in industry. The model aims to quantify how these factors influence Ukraine’s economic performance, with particular attention to industrial output and trade dynamics. Through a series of structural equations, the paper explores the relationships be- tween these variables, revealing that industrial production, wages, and exports play significant roles in driving GDP growth. Additionally, imports contribute to industrial production and sales, suggesting that they serve as vital inputs for domestic manufacturing. The results indicate that while exports have a negative impact on GDP, likely due to the dominance of raw material exports, higher wages and capital investments have a positive effect on economic growth. The model is statistically significant at a 95% confidence level, and its findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance industrial growth and optimize trade and investment strategies for sustainable economic development in Ukraine.