Analysis of Fossil Fuel Trade Networks in the RCEP Region:Characteristics, Evolution, and Resilience Insights

Fossil fuel trade is a crucial pillar of global energy markets, playing an essential role in ensuring socio-economic stability and sustainable development due to its inherent stability and resilience. This study analyzes the characteristics and evolution of RCEP’s fossil fuel trade, identifying the roles of nations and core players, and discusses the network’s resilience based on these insights. The study reveals that: (1) The characteristics and evolution of RCEP’s fossil fuel trade networks show significant heterogeneity across different energy types and countries during the observation period; (2) In terms of overall network traits, the oil trade network demonstrates strong connectivity and stability, along with high efficiency. However, the trade networks for natural gas and coal exhibit high concentrations of out-degree and in-degree, indicating a reliance on certain key countries. This reliance reduces trade diversity and increases the network’s vulnerability and instability. Furthermore, the RCEP fossil fuel trade network demonstrates distinct subgroup characteristics with varying levels of diversity and cohesion; (3) The key country identification analysis within the network reveals an imbalanced development of the RCEP fossil fuel trade network, with a few dominant countries exerting substantial control and influence. This study, through an analysis of the structural and resilience characteristics of the fossil fuel trade network in the RCEP region, reveals heterogeneous patterns across energy types and identifies risks stemming from reliance on key nodes. It provides empirical evidence for improving regional energy security governance and enhancing the resilience of the trade network, while offering insights into advancing sustainability-oriented regional cooperation.