Investigating Graduation and Dropout among Doctoral Students in Canada: A Duration Model Analysis

This article analyses administrative data on students who entered doctoral programs in Canada between 2011 and 2016, providing new insights into doctoral completion and dropout patterns. Graduation rates within seven years vary significantly, with rates exceeding 60 percent in fields such as the physical sciences, life sciences, and engineering, yet falling below 30 percent in the humanities. I estimate a competing risks duration model that accounts for both graduation and dropout events, incorporating variables such as gender, age, immigration status, field of study, institution, marital status, and family composition. The findings indicate that, while controlling for other factors, female students are significantly less likely to drop out than male students but also less likely to graduate. International students exhibit significantly higher completion rates compared with their domestic counterparts. Additionally, there are significant variations in the likelihood of graduation and dropout across different fields of study, ages, institutions, marital statuses, household arrangements, and number of children.