COVID-19 pandemic and road infrastructure exerted stage-dependent spatiotemporal influences on inter-city road travel in China

Abstract As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes and travel resumes, it is important to understand how the influences on inter-city road travel varied across different stages of the pandemic. However, the underlying spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the relationship between the mobility shifts and its determinants at different pandemic stages is unclear. This research divides the pandemic timeline into four distinct stages based on the data from the Chinese Health Care Commission and Amap platform. By using a multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression model (MGTWR), this paper analyzes how the pandemic factor, road infrastructure, population mobility motivations, and other external factors impact inter-city road travel at different pandemic stages. Our findings reveal a “falling-rising-stabilizing-falling” pattern in the overall volume of inter-city mobility over time. Despite the pandemic depressed the road travel volumes, it did not significantly alter the overall spatial patterns of inter-city mobility. However, Spatiotemporal heterogeneity is found in many influencing relationships. The impacts of COVID-19 cases and road infrastructure vary across stages and cities, while other factors are relatively temporally stable. These insights inform economic recovery and policy transitions in the post-pandemic era.