Agri-food import dependency and certain determinants in the context of the EU integration processes: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Croatia

The agricultural sector is a cornerstone of economic and social development in Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Croatia, which are at different stages of EU integration: Croatia has been a member since 2013, North Macedonia began accession negotiations in 2022 and Bosnia and Herzegovina has not yet started the negotiations. Despite these differences, all face significant challenges, including small-scale rural holdings, land fragmentation, high migration, inadequate infrastructure and climate change impacts. These factors contribute to low productivity and sustainability, leading to increased agri-food imports. This study examines the dynamics of import dependency in the agri-food sectors of these countries and their relation to certain agroeconomic indicators. Secondary data from the national statistical offices, FAOSTAT and the World Bank from 2010 to 2023 are used for the examination. The analysis employs descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Independent Samples T-Test and Person correlation coefficient, to evaluate the Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and its relationship with key indicators: Gross Value Added (GVA), agricultural land area and rural/urban population share. Results show that Bosnia and Herzegovina has the highest IDR (mean 38.79%) with low variability, North Macedonia has the lowest but most volatile IDR (mean 15.71%, CV = 41.27%) and Croatia exhibits a moderate IDR (mean 31.93%) with notable increases post-EU accession. Trend analysis reveals a rising IDR in all countries. The T-Test confirms a statistically significant increase in Croatia’s IDR after joining the EU (p = 0.020). The correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation between IDR and the share of the rural population in all three countries, while its relationship with Agricultural land and GVA varies. In conclusion, the findings highlight growing agricultural import dependency, particularly in the post-EU accession period. Strengthening domestic production and enhancing policy measures are essential to improve self-sufficiency and ensure sustainable rural development in the examined countries.