Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Identification of Obstacles to High-Quality Economic Development in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a significant economic development region in China; however, it faces the challenge of underdeveloped economic levels, which impacts the sustainable development of the national economy. This study constructs an index system for high-quality economic development (HQED) based on five development concepts. The CRITIC method was utilized to comprehensively evaluate 78 prefecture-level cities in the YRB from 2000 to 2022. Techniques such as the Dagum Gini coefficient, exploratory spatial data analysis, Markov chain analysis, and the obstacle degree model were employed to investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of HQED levels and their associated obstacles in the YRB. The findings indicate a positive temporal trend in the HQED index, with increasing intra-group differences and overlapping issues among regions, while inter-group differences are decreasing. Nevertheless, the primary contradiction in the YRB continues to arise from inter-group disparities. Spatially, the development regions are predominantly centered around provincial capitals, exhibiting a pronounced “fault line” phenomenon and characteristic “spatial proximity”. In terms of evolutionary trends, the likelihood of each region maintaining its current state is relatively high; however, regions with higher-quality neighborhoods demonstrate a lower probability of stability and a greater likelihood of upward mobility. The positive impacts of high-quality neighborhoods outweigh the negative effects associated with low-quality areas. In terms of obstacles, factors such as sharing and coordination hinder progress in HQED in the YRB, with challenges related to coordination, innovation, and openness intensifying in recent years.