Exploring the Role of Airmass Type and Weather on Shooting Incidents in New York City

Abstract This study explores the association between daily weather and shooting incidents in New York City spanning from 2006 to 2022. While many analyses concentrate on specific weather elements such as temperature or precipitation, our investigation adopts a unique approach by considering airmass type in addition to more traditional meteorological variables. We aim to offer a more comprehensive understanding of how daily weather conditions might impact violent crime occurrences. We employ two nonparametric statistical tests, Spearman’s ranked correlation coefficient to evaluate the relationship between temperature and shooting incidents and a Kruskal–Wallis test to explore shooting associations with precipitation and airmass type. After controlling for important social factors such as the day of week and holidays, the results highlight statistically significant associations between shooting incidents and all three meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, and airmass type). Season also plays an important role in weather–shooting associations, and the results are consistent across all five boroughs.