Mapping socioeconomic spatiotemporal transition and its contribution to carbon emissions in China

China's carbon emission patterns have undergone fundamental transformation through concurrent spatial restructuring of population distribution, economic activity, and energy systems, though their combined climate effects remain insufficiently assessed. This study develops an extended KAYA model to quantify the synergistic impacts of these three-dimensional center-of-gravity shifts. During 1995-2020, when China's carbon emissions grew from 2.8 to 10.5 Gt, key findings reveal: (1)The southward migration of population centers drove 336.02 Mt emission increases, showing strong coupling with emission patterns; (2)The southwest shift of economic activity demonstrated phase-dependent variations, yielding a net increase of 11.46 Mt; (3)Energy production's westward relocation achieved 32.23 Mt reductions, with post-2009 accelerating divergence between energy and emission centers evidencing successful clean energy transition. This spatial-emission linkage mechanism demonstrates that China's dual-carbon strategy requires establishing regionally differentiated climate governance that integrates population mobility, industrial relocation, and energy layout into a unified policy framework.