Meteorological environment and risks along the Arctic Northeast Passage

With rapid warming in the Arctic region, the navigability of the Arctic has improved in recent decades. Except for the sea ice, meteorological conditions are also very important for navigation safety. In this study, crucial meteorological factors and their control areas along the Northeast Passage (NEP) were analyzed by using observations. In addition, the risks in the operations and safety of sailors were investigated with meteorological thresholds identified by the Inuit people. The impact area of low temperatures is the East Siberian Sea (−13 °C to −17 °C under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6), especially in the waters located north of the New Siberian Islands and within the Dmitrii Laptev Strait and Sannikov Strait. The precipitation, wind speed, and visibility decrease, and the atmospheric humidity increases eastward from the Kara Sea. The Kara Sea and Laptev Sea are mainly dominated by eastward wind, while westward wind is very significant in the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 scenario, the Kara Sea is projected to present low meteorological risk from 2026–2030, while higher risks persist in the eastern NEP. In contrast, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 scenario, medium risks become more prevalent, particularly through the Sannikov Strait and north of the New Siberian Islands. The above results are highly important for the meteorological navigation of Arctic shipping and for the formulation of relevant international navigation policies in the Arctic.