Research on the Prediction of Forest Fires in the Central Yunnan Region Based on the Coupling Coordination Degree

This study aims to reveal the formation mechanism of forest fires in the central Yunnan region through a multi-dimensional coupling coordination degree model, providing a scientific basis for fire risk early warning and the construction of ecological security barriers. Based on multi-source data including climate, vegetation, terrain, and human factors, methods such as factor analysis, coupling coordination degree model, and GIS spatial analysis were adopted to quantify the interaction between the natural and social systems, and to construct a regionally adaptable fire risk early warning model. [Results] The results show that the system coupling degree (C value) remains continuously higher than 0.7, reflecting a significant synergistic effect of multiple factors. The coordination degree index (D value) is generally in the primary coordination stage but shows an upward trend. In Yuxi City, the proportion of high fire risk areas reaches 69%. There is a significant positive correlation between temperature and forest fires, while precipitation shows a negative correlation. By analyzing the coupling driving mechanism of multiple systems, this study provides decision-making support for precise fire prevention and emergency management in the central Yunnan region. Its model framework and analytical methods can provide a theoretical reference for forest fire prediction research in mountainous areas globally, contributing to the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable areas.