Current and Future Geographical Distribution and Potential Habitat of Carpinus fangiana Hu (Betulaceae) Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change has greatly affected the survival and distribution of various species. Understanding the distribution of species and their responses to climate change is helpful for species conservation and the utilization of germplasm resources. Carpinus fangiana is endemic to China, and it is used as an ornamental plant and in traditional Chinese medicine. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to reconstruct the current and future ecological niches of C. fangiana. The prediction results indicated that annual precipitation and elevation are the key factors limiting its distribution. Our research found that it also exists in southern Chongqing and southwestern Hunan, and distinct suitable distribution areas and core suitable areas have been detected in these areas. Currently, the suitable distribution areas and core suitable areas of C. fangiana are mainly located in southwestern China around the Sichuan Basin. Although it is distributed in southeastern Yunnan, no distinct suitable distribution areas were detected there. In contrast, suitable distribution areas and core suitable areas were detected in the Qinling and Dabashan mountains, the mountainous areas in western Hubei, and southeastern Xizang, where C. fangiana is not currently distributed. Future climate change will likely have a considerable impact on its distribution, with a clear trend of suitable distribution areas migrating toward higher latitudes and elevations. The suitable distribution areas located in southeastern Xizang and northwestern Yunnan are expected to be lost in the future. In particular, under the high-concentration scenario, a substantial loss of suitable distribution areas is predicted.